For me, it’s not so much the Island Reversal itself, but where that Island Reversal shows up that matters most. In this case, we’re talking about new all-time highs above resistance the past couple of months in the Nasdaq 100 Index. That’s kind of a big deal, and it failed:

What this Island Reversal left behind was a big mess. Taking a step back, this failed breakout (the island reversal), confirmed a bearish momentum divergence. These aren’t things we see in strong uptrends.

So what does this mean? Well, it means that 7000-7100 area is very important. The behavior of the market suggests this is a major point of interest for buyers and sellers, which is what we care most about. I have a funny feeling that investing advice will discuss this 7000-7100 level for a long time.

This area should be more overhead supply in the future, and if/when we do break out above it, I would expect it to become support at some point down the road. I wouldn’t be surprised if we’re discussing this particular level for years to come. I think it’s that important.

Let’s talk about the implications. First, we know this is overhead supply for sure. So we don’t want to be aggressively long from any sort of intermediate-term perspective, unless we’re above that. The risk here is to the downside, not the upside. We will get rallies, possibly even back towards 7100, but I think they will fail for now.

My big question is not whether or not this will be a problem, but for how long. This 6-day reversal is not something like a multi-month long Island Reversal that could cause a multi-quarter or multi-year sell-off. This is just a little guy. But the point is that it is revealing to us where that supply and demand equilibrium really lies. We can’t ignore that.

The sooner we can get through that level, the stronger the market we’re in from a short-term to intermediate-term perspective. In the meantime, I would expect further chop fest at best in the Nasdaq.

Related: Is This the Reason Why Market Liquidity is Down?