There is abundant evidence that the Chinese are scaling back investment in the US and pausing new trade deals with American counterparties. They have been boycotting purchases of new US Treasury bonds for eight months.

The new import duty for Canadian timber is raising the cost of low-end housing, worsening affordability, and causing builders to cut back.

Instead they are refocusing efforts on high-end housing where profit margins are much wider.

Shooting wars with Syria, North Korea, and Iran are permanently just over the horizon, further giving nervous investors pause.

And the general level of chaos coming out of Washington, including the unprecedented level of administrations firings and resignations, are scaring a lot of people.

Since I am a person who puts my money where my mouth is every day of the year, I’ll give you my 10 cents worth on what all this really means.

Two weeks ago I started piling into to an ultra-aggressive 100% “RISK ON” trading book, loading the boat with a range of asset classes, including longs in financial and technology stocks and gold and big shorts in the bond market.

My bet is that while however serious all of the above concerns may be, they pale in comparison with Q1 2018 earnings growth of historic proportions that is now unfolding, prompted by the December tax bill.

The second 10% correction of 2018 had nothing to do with fundamentals. It was all about hot money retreating to the sideline until the bad news waned and the good news returned.

And so it has. Forecast Q1 earnings are now looking to come in above 20% YOY. These will be reports for the ages.

If fact, the rest of 2018 could play out exactly as it has done so far, with frantic sell-offs following the end of each quarterly reporting period, followed by slow grind-up rallies leading into the next. Technology will lead the rallies every time.

Which means we may go absolutely nowhere in the indexes 2018, but have a whole lot of fun getting there. If you see this coming, you can make a ton of money trading around it.

Which raises the question: when will the recession really start?

My bet is sometime in 2019, when earnings growth downshifts from 20% to 10% or even 5%.

If this happens in the face of an inverting yield curve where short-term interest rates are higher than long-term ones, and a continuing trade war AND shooting wars, and broadening Washington scandals, then a recession becomes a sure thing.

A bear market should precede that by about six months.

So date those high-risk positions, but don’t marry them.

 Related: How Deep is the First-Quarter Pothole?