This suggests that the difficult comparisons are not only the result of tax cuts, but perhaps better top-line growth that can’t be repeated. I think it’s too early to worry about this risk today, but it’s not too early to start thinking about it, and watching for signs of consumer behavior becoming more tempered. I would also throw in the price of crude oil as an important consideration, given that our economics team estimates that close to one-third of the tax cut benefit to the US consumer may have already been removed by the rise in oil and gasoline prices.

The third and final risk is also the biggest, if most underappreciated of all: the so-called “Fed policy error”, a fancy way of saying the Fed has tightened too much, which could wreck the 16x floor to Morgan Stanley’s forecast and launch a market crash…and by the reflexivity of modern markets in which asset prices influence the economy, the next recession.

While Wilson concedes that financial conditions are tightening, there are wide-ranging opinions about how much more the Fed can tighten before it begins to really bite the economy. More interesting is the chief equity strategist’s assertion that he also finds “many investors believe the Fed will pause or stop tightening to avoid a recession.”

Well, don’t hold your breath, Wilson warns an entire generation of “traders” used to being bailed out by the Fed the moments things turn ugly and cautioning that “that’s not how it generally works once the Fed has met its economic goals and begins to tighten in earnest, a condition I believe has begun for this cycle.”

Wilson’s summary is most troubling for those bulls – most of them – who remain confident that between the “global coordinated recovery” narrative, and the Fed stepping in to ease or inject liquidity when risk assets tumble, there is no way one can lose money.

The conclusion is hardly what one would expect from the chief equity strategist of a bank whose “job” is to comfort investor by seeing nothing but smooth skied ahead: “These signals can take years to build before an outright recession. However, one thing is clear to us — we don’t expect to return back to the tranquil environment of 2017.”

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