On Thursday, Trump cancelled the meeting that was being planned with North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un in a letter that implied he may have had mixed feelings about the decision. Stocks swung lower. Home sales data then fell to 5.46 million in April from 5.6 million in March, coming in below the average estimate of 5.56 million. Home prices increased 8.7%, the fastest rate in 16 years. By the end of the day, the market fell but only by 5 points.

On Friday, crude oil fell below the $70 level again, which was a 4.5% drop. The move happened after a meeting between Russian and Saudi Energy Ministers Alexander Novak and Khalid Al-Falih. Novak later said that OPEC and its allies could begin raising production targets again, ostensibly in response to declining Venezuelan output and renewed US sanctions on Iran.

To top everything off, Trump revealed in the afternoon that planning with North Korea waa proceeding and the meeting may even take place on the date previously planned.

With equities up last week, gold was up 0.85%, and oil was down 5.33%, the euro was down 1.09%, and 10-year treasuries were up 0.98%.

Our Projection for the S&P 500 This Week

Our analysis of the S&P 500 over the coming two weeks is for the stock market to face a period of risk, as shown on the chart above taken from the askSlim Stock Index Report.  The purple cycle brackets on the bottom represent the market cycles. We see a possible move higher early next week, with resistance at 2744. We are then looking for a downside move of 125-150 points over the coming two weeks.

There is further risk in the subsequent market cycle. The reason that we see this period of risk approaching is our projection for the conclusion of a longer-term market cycle. This is explained in our Big Picture Analysis, which looks at the declining phase of the current cycle.

 Related: The Surprising Reason for VIX’s Comeback