Billionaire Real Estate magnate Sam Zell is known best for two things: speaking his mind, often using salty language, and impeccable market timing. In 2007, at the peak of the bubble, he unloaded his entire real estate portfolio to Blackstone. And today he has some unique investing advice for us.
He has once again become a net seller of property, and has been appearing on financial media to unload truth bombs regarding the current state of both stock and real estate markets. He doesn’t paint a pretty picture.
On CNBC, when asked about retail real estate here in the US, Zell explained the significant excess inventory in the U.S., 4-5x more per capita than Europe, and said investing in the space right now is like catching a falling knife. Here are some choice quotes:
“Like a falling knife. You start with the fact that the U.S. has 4 or 5 times the amount of square footage per person of retail as anywhere else in the world. So we start with an enourmously large inventory of retail.”
“3 years ago your could buy an 8% mall…you could buy a B-mall and it was probably an 8% cap rate. The same mall, 3 years later, is now selling at 13% and 14%. So you’ve seen enourmous erosion of value.”
“When the knife falls there’s going to be plenty of opportunities for people to step up and say ‘what are alternate uses?'”
Pressed on whether now just might be the time to take a contrarian view on the collapsing retail space, Zell again was unable to satiate the desires for positive news from his eager hosts.
“An area that’s in this much disarray, with so many weak players, is not an area where I would want to deploy capital at this time,” Zell said. “And I’m generally a contrarian, but I think what we’re dealing with here is very significant.”
Over on MarketWatch, an article covering Zell’s perspective expands on broader topics.
The Trump administration is delaying those steel tariffs for a bunch of allies, but there isn’t much letup in Iran-Israel tensions at the moment — or in North Korea-related posturing.
And the Dominican Republican is snagging a bit of the spotlight today, as it disses Taiwan and cozies up to China.
But the market just might shrug at all the geopolitical turmoil and instead focus on what really matters: How many iPhones has Apple sold?
“Given the negative bias to the markets, a downbeat guidance from Apple could prove too much,” warns London Capital Group’s Jasper Lawler, as he braces for the company’s earnings after the close.
Billionaire investor Sam Zell is also cautioning that stocks could face a reckoning. And he’s not sounding that bullish about real estate either — the sector where he made his fortune. He delivers our call of the day.
“The stock market, despite all of the gyrations, is still at an all-time high. Real estate is priced to perfection,” Zell tells Bloomberg TV, as the S&P 500 SPX, -0.82% stands 8% below its January peak.
“I’m a little bit like that old Wendy’s commercial: ‘Where’s the beef?’ … I think it’s a very challenging situation, one that requires discipline.”
Zell agrees with the notion that there is a ton of capital chasing too few opportunities. He suggests investors resist urges to buy, buy, buy.
“It very hard to sit there and not pull the trigger, but it’s the guys who don’t pull the trigger who are around to pull it when it works,” Zell says.
The “Grave Dancer” notes that he and his lieutenants swooped down about five years ago on a Chicago-based REIT that owns office properties, Equity Commonwealth.
“Since we took it over, we’ve done nothing but sell. Today we have $3.2 billion in cash, uncommitted, and we’re just sitting there, waiting for the world to come to us,” he says.
He’s not tempted by the Amazon-fueled action around warehouses and distribution centers. It’s probably “getting too exciting,” he says.
You can get a seven-minute dose of Zell in the video below, and keep in mind the evergreen advice from A Wealth of Common Sense’s Ben Carlson — who says don’t try to emulate billionaire investors.
