Investing Advice: Will July Slide Lead to a Rollover?
Posted On July 6, 2018 12:18 pm
By: Steve Smith
By: Steve Smith
July could see acceleration if we get downside follow through, for a few reasons.
We know that 180 degrees down from the June 2791 high is 2688.
Just below that is the 200 day m.a. at 2671.
A 360 degree decline off the 2791 pivot high gives 2584.
The low close for the year is 2581.88.
As you can see there is some compelling symmetry on the table.
There is reason to believe downside acceleration could play out here in July.
The FAANNG’s led the NDX to an all-time high on June 20th. The gap down below its 20 day m.a. on June 25th left an Island Top.
Bull tops such as 2000 and 1929 are as close as the market has ever come to perfection.
And that is the problem. The irony of that victory of sentiment, of conviction over skepticism — in its near perfection — is that the performance couldn’t be sustained beyond the moment.
At extreme highs and buying climaxes in stocks and in the market as a whole, great traders recognize extreme taken to a new extreme and realizing the temporality of this react with raw emotion.
Such is the terrifying terrain swelled with volatility this year versus the extreme calm in 2017.
Just Monday, it was hard to miss the cowbells and crowing on Twitter of how clean Monday’s low was… how easy it was to pick off — how anybody who’d missed it must be an idiot.
I think by the turn of October we’ll see who is smart. And who is swimming with no pants.
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