The JPMorgan Chase & Co. chief executive officer said Saturday people should be prepared to deal with the benchmark 10-year bond yield at 5 percent or higher.
“I think rates should be 4 percent today,” Dimon said Saturday at the Aspen Institute’s 25th Annual Summer Celebration Gala. “You better be prepared to deal with rates 5 percent or higher – it’s a higher probability than most people think.”
The 3 percent level is still providing stiff resistance for the 10-year Treasury yield this year. It briefly rose through the mark last week before falling back for the fourth time this year. That’s despite a U.S. jobless rate below 4 percent, economic growth above 4 percent, and a rare surge in late-cycle government borrowing.
Unease about the length of the economic cycle may be behind the stalled rise in yields. “The market is starting to look beyond the 2020 time-frame and pricing in some recession risk,” said Tom Garretson, U.S. fixed-income portfolio strategist at RBC Wealth Management.
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