3 Signs that a Recession is Looming

3 Signs that a Recession is Looming

Posted On November 9, 2018 2:51 pm

There are signs that the stock market’s next recession might begin soon.  And recessions are accompanied by bear markets.

Many companies earnings this quarter still showed growth but at a decelerated rate on a year-over-year basis. They also point out the U.S. is still expected to maintain a positive GPD north of 2.5% throughout 2019.

Armed with these couple of data points, it could be believed a recession is still a few years away.  Bear markets rarely occur unless the economy goes into a recession, and therefore an argument can be made that the bull market in stocks should also continue.

But there are growing growling sounds from a variety of other markets that suggest is coming sooner than the stock market expects…

1.Commodity prices.  Key materials such as oil, copper, and steal are in bear markets, that is down at least 20% from their 52-week high.  These are highly sensitive to economic conditions and their price weakness indicates…

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About author

Steve Smith

Steve Smith have been involved in all facets of the investment industry in a variety of roles ranging from speculator, educator, manager and advisor. This has taken him from the trading floors of Chicago to hedge funds on Wall Street to the world online. From 1987 to 1996, he served as a market maker at the Chicago Board of Options Exchange (CBOE) and Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT). From 1997 to 2007, he was a Senior Columnist and Managing Editor for TheStreet.com, handling their Option Alert and Short Report newsletters. The Option Alert was awarded the MIN “best business newsletter” in 2006. From 2009 to 2013, Smith was a Senior Columnist and Managing Editor for Minyanville’s OptionSmith newsletter, as well as a Risk Manager Consultant for New Vernon Capital LLC. Smith acted as an advisor to build models and option strategies to reduce portfolio exposure and enhance returns for the four main funds. Since 2015, he has worked for Adam Mesh Trading Group. There, he has managed Options360 and Earning 360, been co-leader of Option Academy, and contributed to The Option Specialist website.