The Rising Risk of an Economic Recession
By: Steve Smith
This morning’s ISM report came in at 47.8, well below expectations and the third consecutive month of reading below 50, indicating a contraction in economic activity. This is also the lowest reading since June of 2009.
The stock market took a nosedive immediately after the report was released as the precipitous decline in both economic activity and manufacturers outlook reignited fears the U.S. could enter a recession in the next few months.
The bleak reading comes on the heels of continued weakening data from Germany, India and China, alongside a report from the World Trade Organization which expects total global trade to expand by only merchandise 1.2% in 2019; this is down from 3.1% forecast at the beginning of the year.
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