By: Steve Smith
Not to toot my own horn, but the narrowing-of-breadth caution I’ve expressed and the possibility that FAAGM gang (Facebook (FB) Amazon (AMZN) Apple (AAPL), and Microsoft (MSFT)) earnings reports would garner a “sell-the-news” reaction, pretty much played out to a “T.” Now, I’ve mostly moved to the sidelines and will take a wait-and-see attitude, believing the market’s in a fragile flux state.
Last week I wrote the following: The QQQ is starting to go parabolic, carried by good earnings from most of tech and the weight of FAAMG hitting new highs. I’ve repeatedly discussed how the gigatech generals have carried the top line indices higher while there has been major pullback by many of the soldiers.
These heavy hitters, AAPL, AMZN, MSFT, and GOOGL all report earnings next week. I don’t doubt their reports will be stunningly strong. But will they be met with a sell-the-news reaction? That’s what happened last quarter.
This is why I think it’s worth spending a little money, using the Monday Wednesday expires, or what I refer to as the triple play of rolling to reduce cost basis, to see if there is a correction in the next two weeks. “
Despite strong reports, the “sell-the-news scenario” has mostly played out —the final nail being AMZN having a true miss with it tanking some 6% today.
The QQQ put spread trade we established in the Options360 has closed two-thirds; locking in a 47% gain. Additionally, it’s holding the last third of the position until Monday’s expiration, giving us the possibility to add 27% to our returns.
As I recently discussed, I keep each position’s allocation 3%-5% of the total portfolio. Meaning, I’ll never have an upside or downside life-altering trade. I’ve experienced the latter and it’s no fun. However, the steady, consistent gains have now pushed the Options360 portfolio to a positive 27% year-to-date return! The portfolio’s down to just three positions, well four if you consider cash a position, so we have plenty of dry powder for fresh opportunities.