I Love Being Proven Right…

I Love Being Proven Right…

Posted On October 27, 2022 1:19 pm

Dear Reader,

I generally avoid making predictions. I learned early on in my trading career that predictions are often lead directly to losses…

We trade for profitsHowever, losses are not completely avoidable.

That said, I do occasionally give an opinion about the economy and the macro picture. I’m careful not to get “married” to my opinions, and I’m always quick to admit when I am wrong. Agility and eliminating ego are key factors to successful trading.

BUT, I have to give myself some credit, I do occasionally hit the nail on the head.

This is why I thought it would be appropriate to take a short victory lap on this one.

On the 15th of last month, I wrote:

“No need to bury the lede; Chairman Powell should raise rates a full 1% (100 basis points) next Wednesday and then shut up and stand down for the next year.”

Of course, they didn’t take my advice…

So the FOMC bumped rates by .75%, with a “promise” to do the same thing in the November 1-2 meeting. (*cough couch*: save the date…)

The market stayed in turmoil – just like it’s been all year. Then, last Friday the Fed leaked that it would slow rate hikes in December and may stop them early next year…

Thankfully, on Monday we jumped into a bullish SPY trade, which we adjusted to reduce most of our risk and stands to have a 50% gain if shares of the ETF reach above $381 come Monday.

And the Dow has been “to the moon” ever since.

I know the Nasdaq has had some trouble the last 2 days because of a few big tech earnings reports. However, I suspect that it will calm down in short order if rates continue to drop.

Imagine if the Fed had just bit the bullet and did the 1% hike in September, but announced that it was going to freeze rate hikes for 9 to 12 months to allow the economy to reach some level of equilibrium. Then, they could make a decision about how to move forward based on the data.

I suspect, considering the effect of Friday’s leak, the market would’ve LOVED it, and we would have been looking at an even stronger rally…

Only it would’ve started in September.

But alas, I don’t get to make those decisions.

Regardless, I do get to help you find amazing trades on a daily basis – and at the end of the day that is enough for me. 

Join us in our Options360 community for just $19

When you do you’ll get access to high probability, low risk trades – and an education in options trading that is second to none.

I promise you, it’ll be the best $19 you ever spend, or I’ll send it back to you!

Come collect some profits with us, and I’ll see you on our upcoming webinar that takes place next Tuesday, November 1. But only if you’re a member. You won’t want to miss it. Now is the time… your time.

To Your Success,


About author

Steve Smith

Steve Smith have been involved in all facets of the investment industry in a variety of roles ranging from speculator, educator, manager and advisor. This has taken him from the trading floors of Chicago to hedge funds on Wall Street to the world online. From 1987 to 1996, he served as a market maker at the Chicago Board of Options Exchange (CBOE) and Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT). From 1997 to 2007, he was a Senior Columnist and Managing Editor for TheStreet.com, handling their Option Alert and Short Report newsletters. The Option Alert was awarded the MIN “best business newsletter” in 2006. From 2009 to 2013, Smith was a Senior Columnist and Managing Editor for Minyanville’s OptionSmith newsletter, as well as a Risk Manager Consultant for New Vernon Capital LLC. Smith acted as an advisor to build models and option strategies to reduce portfolio exposure and enhance returns for the four main funds. Since 2015, he has worked for Adam Mesh Trading Group. There, he has managed Options360 and Earning 360, been co-leader of Option Academy, and contributed to The Option Specialist website.

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