By: Steve Smith
What in the heck is going on in the markets recently?
Stick with me. We’re going to get a little wonky, but what I’m seeing is crazy.
And it’s critical you understand it.
What’s concerning me is the fluctuation in the debt market.
The 10-year treasury yield has been on a roller coaster since Friday afternoon… I’ll show you what I mean.
Friday close: Yields are at 3.829%.
Monday open: Yields gap down nearly 15 basis points.
Monday, 11:10 a.m: Rates are down a full 24.8 basis points, bringing the yield to 3.581%.
From there, the 10-year yields spent the next 30 hours fluctuating within a 7- or 8-basis point range until…
Wednesday open: Rates gap up nearly 10 basis points to open at 3.713%.
Thursday open: Rates run up again, adding 10 more basis points in just 60 minutes.
As I write this, yields are back up to 3.811% — very close to Friday’s close.
Do you see a correlation with stock prices Monday and Tuesday — then Wednesday and today?
Let’s even zoom in and see what’s happened this morning…
Between 9:40 a.m. and 10:45 a.m., the 10-year yield shot up from 3.761% to 3.844%
Between 9:55 a.m. and 10:40 a.m., the Dow dropped 239 points to 30,026.
From 10:45 a.m. until around 11:30 a.m., the 10-year yield started falling.
Between 10:40 a.m. and 11:55 a.m., the Dow recovered 176 points.
Then rates started back up and stock prices started back down.
The inverse correlation between the debt market and stock prices isn’t anything new…
But the debt market is SUPPOSED to be very stable. No big swings.
A 24.8-basis point drop in about two-and-a-half trading hours (Friday at close until Monday around 11:30 a.m.) is UNHEARD OF!
Unless some huge player started buying loads of debt.
And when I say huge player, I mean someone with the buying power to make the likes of Elon Musk seem like a pauper.
Who could that be?
Here’s my point, there are some BIG manipulations going on in the debt market… and, by extension, the stock market…
And it is more important than ever to have someone to help you work through this safely and profitably.
I can do that for you.
Not to sound immodest, but my track record speaks for itself.
I haven’t lost money for my Options360 members over any year since we launched in 2015. That’s a 100% win rate on a yearly basis for almost seven years now.
And EVERY year we crushed our benchmark, the S&P 500.
I promise it’ll be the best $19 you ever spent.
To Your Success,
Steve Smith have been involved in all facets of the investment industry in a variety of roles ranging from speculator, educator, manager and advisor. This has taken him from the trading floors of Chicago to hedge funds on Wall Street to the world online. From 1987 to 1996, he served as a market maker at the Chicago Board of Options Exchange (CBOE) and Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT). From 1997 to 2007, he was a Senior Columnist and Managing Editor for TheStreet.com, handling their Option Alert and Short Report newsletters. The Option Alert was awarded the MIN “best business newsletter” in 2006. From 2009 to 2013, Smith was a Senior Columnist and Managing Editor for Minyanville’s OptionSmith newsletter, as well as a Risk Manager Consultant for New Vernon Capital LLC. Smith acted as an advisor to build models and option strategies to reduce portfolio exposure and enhance returns for the four main funds. Since 2015, he has worked for Adam Mesh Trading Group. There, he has managed Options360 and Earning 360, been co-leader of Option Academy, and contributed to The Option Specialist website.
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