By: Steve Smith
Let’s take a break from the market for a moment to talk about numbers, and how people in this business use them to sell you things.
Obviously, I’m in the business of selling subscriptions to Options360. And, frankly, as much as I do my best to help people for free, I’m not shy about my service…
We have to keep the lights on around here somehow.
Just to be able to send you this email once a day, we need web infrastructure, editorial staff, compliance people, IT and programing staff, servers, etc.
All of which needs to be paid for…
So we sell membership to this community of options traders, and that subsidizes the free help I give to traders.
Anyway, enough about that. Just wanted to be transparent.
Now, for the ways people in the financial newsletter business use statistics to try and sell you.
Let’s take the Dow and see how many ways we can frame the price action.
- The Dow is up a full 115 pts as of this writing
- The Dow is down a massive 819 pts, almost 2.5%, in the last 5 trading days alone
- Over the last month the Dow has skyrocketed 1000+ pts, putting on almost 3.5%! Annualized that would represent a 42% gain
- Year to date the Dow has collapsed a massive 3500 points. That means in the last 7.5 months you would’ve lost almost 10% of your wealth if you had money in a Dow index fund
- Over the last 5 years the Dow is up a whopping 51.67%
Those numbers can be used to construct whatever narrative the person talking to you or writing to you wants to construct. And if you listen or read only in a bubble – you can find yourself only getting half the story.
People do the same thing with trade returns.
You might read something like “XYZ service has a 60% win rate!”
That’s fine, but if they are getting a 5% win on average and a 50% loss on average – you’re still losing money following their recommendations.
You’ll see other people cherry picking trades to highlight for you.
“We closed a trade yesterday for an incredible 188% windfall in just 3 days!”
Again, without context who cares. Yes, 188% is impressive, but if it’s the only winner this year you’re still losing money.
So who can you trust?
Well, you can trust me and the people here at AMTG. It’s why I work with them.
Look, I edited one of the first options newsletters in existence. I have been in this business for a long time…
I can have my choice of who I work with, and I work with AMTG because of their dedication to subscribers and to full transparency.
No one else would even let me mention the tricks of the trade like I have here. And trying to give a brief explanation of one or two of them could get me fired at some publishers.
Anyway, I hope you found this interesting. Maybe even helpful.
Just remember to keep your eye out and be careful who you work with.
Remember, professionals can get fantastic results – but if it sounds too good to be true…
Best of luck!
Here’s a stat no one can fake. The overall year to date ROI for a service. In Options360 that number is 21.6%.
That means anyone who has made every trade in a timely manner has seen their original stake balloon a full 21.6%. Ask your 401K administrator and he’ll tell you that’s an amazing return in a strong market. In this market it is ALMOST too good to be true.
You can find out how we make these kinds of amazing returns when you try out a trial subscription today.