Bull Market 2017: Good Advice to Keep You Humble

Posted On October 20, 2017 5:35 pm

As the President like to remind up every time the Dow Jones crosses a new 1,000 point threshold, we are in the midst of a major bull market.

Whether Donald Trump is solely or even partially responsible for the market gains, the S&P 500 has enjoyed a near 25% increase, and hit 47 new all-time highs since the election. During such bullish periods, anyone can look smart.

So now is good time to review some of the basic tenets, rules, aphorisms and yes, clichés that help guide us not just through turbulent times but, more importantly, can keep us humble through the upswing of a bull market.

Remember, clichés have become clichés because they contain a kernel of truth which makes them useful. So do sports, gambling and other analogies. Let’s jump right in.

There are many ways to skin a cat, just as some poker or tennis players are defensive grinders, while others swing for the fences. So, some things that work or are appropriate for me might be antithetical to your style or temperament.

As you can see sometimes things get mixed up or can actually directly contradict each other; this just points out how one needs to keep an open and flexible mindset.

Here are some of the principles, aphorisms and yes, clichés, that have helped guide my trading career, through bull market and bear market alike.

  • Prepare to lose: You must be prepared to experience losses. It’s simply part of game. Depending on your approach, you can control the size and frequency but losses will happen. This is true even those that think they have a “system.” Make limiting your drawdown in capital your number one priority, not your profits. It’s much easier to be profitable when you don’t lose a lot of money.
  • Never lose more than 1% of your total trading capital on any one trade: Do not overexpose your account to too many positions that are all closely correlated to the same trend. Only take your highest probability entry signals. Only trade four to five open positions at a time, so even big whipsaws in price action don’t damage your account too much.
  • Trade smaller and smaller during losing streaks, and only get back up to full size during winning streaks.
  • Use option contracts to cap possible maximum losses to only the contract size. Do not become biased as a bull or a bear. Be open minded to what the markets and your signals are saying about the current trend.
  • Trade only in a method you fully understand, and don’t piggy back on another trader.
  • Never buy a stock because it’s had a big decline from its previous high.
  • Being reactive instead of predictive on actual price action is a winning principle I have seen in many rich traders. Letting price action give you signals is trading reality. Trading based on what the price should be is wishful thinking.

And to continue this theme, here are the 7 Deadly Sins of Investing:

Hubris: A foolish amount of pride or overconfidence. No matter how good of a trader you think you are, the market is always bigger. You will not win an argument with its price action no matter what.

Gluttony: You’ve had success in your personal account. Don’t think you can scale it up to a multi-billion hedge fund and just get fat on the fees. You’ll get fat in the near term, and then die shortly thereafter when you can’t recreate your results or stand the pressure of trying to do so.

Fear: Cutting winners short because of unwarranted fear eliminates all the big wins. Being afraid to take a good entry creates loss of a potential profit. Thorough trading methodology study is required to trade confidently.

Ego: When the desire to be right exceeds the desire to make money, you can end up losing a lot of money. Egotism causes traders to hold onto losers far too long. The best traders are attentive to the market’s price action, not their own ego.

Sloth: Seeking to be given trades instead of doing the work to develop a system leads to failure. Trades only have meaning when they are executed within a robust system complimented by discipline and risk management.

Avarice: The greedier a new trader is, the higher the probability and speed at which they lose their whole trading account. There is significant risk in going for trades with big position sizes, because the losses can be huge if they are wrong.

Lust: Don’t try to make money as means of happiness. It simply won’t work. Am I right, guys and girls?

Related: Can This Calm Spell in the Market Last Forever? 

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About author

Steve Smith

Steve Smith have been involved in all facets of the investment industry in a variety of roles ranging from speculator, educator, manager and advisor. This has taken him from the trading floors of Chicago to hedge funds on Wall Street to the world online. From 1987 to 1996, he served as a market maker at the Chicago Board of Options Exchange (CBOE) and Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT). From 1997 to 2007, he was a Senior Columnist and Managing Editor for TheStreet.com, handling their Option Alert and Short Report newsletters. The Option Alert was awarded the MIN “best business newsletter” in 2006. From 2009 to 2013, Smith was a Senior Columnist and Managing Editor for Minyanville’s OptionSmith newsletter, as well as a Risk Manager Consultant for New Vernon Capital LLC. Smith acted as an advisor to build models and option strategies to reduce portfolio exposure and enhance returns for the four main funds. Since 2015, he has worked for Adam Mesh Trading Group. There, he has managed Options360 and Earning 360, been co-leader of Option Academy, and contributed to The Option Specialist website.

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